Wet Winter Not Necessarily Indicative of Dry Summer 3/4/05

MANHATTAN, Kan. – Soggy Kansas weather the past few months has some weather watchers drawing comparisons to similar winter weather in the early 1930s that preceded the Dust Bowl days, but State of Kansas climatologist Mary Knapp said the one scenario does not necessarily lead to the other.

Kansas Weather Facts

MANHATTAN, Kan. – Unusually wet weather the past three months has made some Kansans wonder what it means for weather the rest of the year. Mary Knapp, state climatologist for Kansas, says, “Not much.”

Some wet winters have been followed by very dry years, such as in 1931-32. Some have been followed by very wet years, such as in 1992-93.

Knapp – who runs the Weather Data Library, based at Kansas State University – shared some facts about the wet and dry of Kansas weather:

* 1992-1993 - Wettest winter (Nov.-Feb.) on record - 8.84 inches.

* 1931-1932 - Second wettest winter (Nov.-Feb) on record - 7.08 inches.

* 2004-2005 - Past winter’s (Nov-Feb) precipitation - 4.78 inches.

* 1951 - Wettest entire year (Jan.-Dec.) on record - 41.5 inches.

* 1993 - Despite flooding, fourth wettest year on record (Jan.-Dec.) - 38.83 inches.

“There’s no reason to think that we’ll have a drought because of all this rain,” said Knapp, who is in charge of the Weather Data Library, based at Kansas State University Research and Extension.

Kansas’ average precipitation for November 2004-February 2005, while wetter than usual at 4.78 inches, was well below the record 8.84 inches set in November 1992-February 1993. That winter, in fact, preceded heavy flooding in the Midwest.

The second wettest winter was in 1931-1932, when 7.08 inches fell in the comparable three-month period. While it’s true that winter preceded the infamous drought through the nation’s heartland, 1932 was not even the driest year on record, Knapp said: “It was more like the 25th driest year.”

The two extremes – drought after one wet winter (1931-1932) and flooding after another wet winter (1992-1993) are good examples of why it’s not a good idea to read too much into this winter’s data, she said.

“Winter weather is just not a good precursor for what the rest of the year will be,” Knapp said. “Keep in mind, it’s only a quarter of the year. In fact, the winter months are usually the driest.

“This winter, we’re coming off of a very dry pattern. Although we’re recharging ponds and streams with the moisture we’ve had the last few months, we still have not erased all of the effects from the earlier five years of drought.”

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K-State Research and Extension is a short name for the Kansas State University Agricultural Experiment Station and Cooperative Extension Service, a program designed to generate and distribute useful knowledge for the well-being of Kansans. Supported by county, state, federal and private funds, the program has county Extension offices, experiment fields, area Extension offices and regional research centers statewide. Its headquarters is on the K-State campus, Manhattan.