Released: September 23, 2005

Plains Also Prime for Hurricane Rita?

MANHATTAN, Kan. – Many central U.S. residents think they live far enough from oceans to be protected from tropical weather.

“They should think again,” said Mary Knapp, State of Kansas climatologist, based with Kansas State University Research and Extension.

After Hurricane Rita moves inland, it’s likely to stall out and make severe weather and flooding almost certain for parts of Texas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Arkansas and perhaps Kansas, according to analysts with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. (NOAA updates are available on the Web at http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.html.)

“Current weather patterns will determine just exactly where Rita goes. After it makes landfall, however, isolated tornadoes will become a risk, too,” Knapp said.

Most tropical systems do lose most of their strength by the time they reach the middle of the continent, she said. Even so, a 1900 system got to Kansas still at tropical storm strength (39 to 73 mph).

“Of course, rain typically has the bigger impact in the High Plains. Back in 1931, an unnamed tropical depression crossed into southeast Kansas on July 17. Over the next two days, Columbus saw 4.49 inches of rainfall – the bulk of the 5.35 inches it reported for the month,” the climatologist said. “Ironically, Elkhart missed out on that moisture and only got one-half inch of rain for July.”

Knapp said NOAA scientists now believe the Atlantic Ocean is 10 years into a 20- to 30-year cycle of above-average storm activity. They think global warming has little or nothing to do with this outlook for more and stronger storms. Instead, historical records trace such trends. Plus, factors that go with increased activity are in place, including warm sea-surface temperatures and low wind shear.

Before 1995, the Atlantic had 25 years of below-normal activity, she said. Except for two El Niño-affected years, however, the hurricane seasons have been above normal ever since.

“This year, the Atlantic had a record-setting seven tropical storms in June and July. So, no one was really surprised when NOAA revised its hurricane outlook in early August,” Knapp said. “With an unprecedented amount of certainty, it called for another 11 to 14 tropical storms in the August-November period, with seven to nine becoming hurricanes. The latter number includes three to five major ones.

“And, so far, we appear likely to meet that projection.”

On average, the Atlantic’s regular June-November hurricane season produces 10 named tropical storms, six of which become hurricanes, including two major ones with winds of at least 111 mph.

Since Aug. 2, NOAA has been calling for a 2005 season with 18 to 21 tropical storms. Nine to 11 of those storms could become hurricanes, including five to seven major hurricanes.

Although the Atlantic can have an effect on High Plains weather, it wasn’t at fault in 1993 when many Kansas locations set records for annual rainfall and many experienced historic flooding, Knapp said. In that case, the causes were three: an unusually large snow melt up north, a record-strong El Niño weather system from the Pacific Ocean, and the aftereffects of a large volcanic eruption.

Hiawatha, Kan., holds the state record for the weather observing site receiving the most rainfall in a year, she said. It received a (for Kansas) torrential 71.99 inches in 1973.

The wettest statewide average is 41.5 inches, set in 1951. The Atlantic was in its previous 20-year cycle of above-normal storms during the 1950s and 1960s..

“To have some real perspective on that, you needed to be in Alvin, Tex., on July 25, 1979. In 24 hours, that town received a deluge to the tune of 43 inches. In the parts of Kansas that generally receive the most precipitation, that’s the same as a year’s worth of rain!” Knapp said. “Burlington holds the Kansas record for the most rainfall during a 24-hour period – 12.59 inches.”

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K-State Research and Extension is a short name for the Kansas State University Agricultural Experiment Station and Cooperative Extension Service, a program designed to generate and distribute useful knowledge for the well-being of Kansans. Supported by county, state, federal and private funds, the program has county Extension offices, experiment fields, area Extension offices and regional research centers statewide. Its headquarters is on the K-State campus, Manhattan.

Story by:
Kathleen Ward
kward@oznet.ksu.edu
K-State Research& Extension News