Kansas Drought Continues Amid Threats of Flooding 3/5/04

MANHATTAN, Kan. – Kansas still is suffering from drought, despite the rains that came at the end of February and are likely to fall in above-average amounts through much of March.

“The rains are welcome, of course – except when they cause flooding problems,” said Mary Knapp, Kansas’ state climatologist. “They’ve also been much more widespread than previously. Even ‘orphan’ northwest Kansas has gotten some moisture.

“But our current drought was a long time in the making, and it won’t disappear overnight. In fact, by late spring we could lose all of the recovery we’re making now.”

A Drought That Floods?

MANHATTAN, Kan. – To help Kansans understand how their state can be in a drought while experiencing drift-building snowfalls and then flooding rains, state climatologist Mary Knapp explains the moisture situation in terms of a financial budget:

“Several years ago, your boss starting cutting your pay by irregular, but significant amounts. You haven’t been able to live on your monthly salary. You’ve had to dip into your savings time and again.

“So, now your ‘rainy day’ fund is gone. You haven’t even got enough buried in the back yard to meet the big bills, such as taxes and insurance, that just come at certain times of year.

“Like a single big rainfall, a Christmas bonus won’t immediately get you back to where you used to be. A Christmas, Valentine’s and Easter bonus won’t do the job.

“You need your salary to return to its normal level and stay there. At that, building up your savings again will take a long time, though; so, your regular salary plus a raise would be even better.

"And the same holds true with or recovering from a drought”

– Source: Kansas State University Research and Extension

Thus far, long-term predictions are suggesting that after March, the state has even odds. It’s as likely to be drier than normal as it is to be wetter than normal, she said.

“Unfortunately, the outlook for summer’s temperatures isn’t that favorable. They’re expected to be above normal – which translates into a greater demand for water. Moisture evaporates more quickly when it’s unusually hot. Plants need more irrigating. People tend to take more showers, wash more clothes and play in the water more,” Knapp said.

So, odds are, those who plan on planting this spring should do so as early as possible. That will give plants a better chance of getting established or starting to mature before the temperatures soar.

Two long-term trends that Knapp’s analyses have uncovered may also affect the state’s chances this summer. As head of the Kansas Weather Data Library (based in Manhattan with Kansas State University Research and Extension), Knapp is the official keeper of the state’s long-term weather records.

“The rainfall from 1971 to 2000 showed two shifts from the long-term averages for the 30-year periods dating back to 1895,” the climatologist said. “Overall, the rainfall was higher than the long-term average. But, just as important, we started getting more moisture than normal in late winter and less than normal in July-August. That has had important implications for Kansas crops.”

Historically, Kansas gets the lion’s share of its yearly moisture from late spring through early fall. But, 2004’s late-winter moisture could very well be an example of the 1971-2000 shift Knapp found in annual distribution.

In drought-troubled Colby, for example, March 1 brought almost one-half inch of rainfall. That was more moisture than Colby had received this year in December, January and February ... combined.

“The change between seasons is usually significant, and for farmers, in particular, how moisture is distributed can be everything. Even during a drought, if enough rain falls at the right times, farmers still may be able to harvest a crop,” Knapp said. “This doesn’t mean they only need one big storm at planting or any other time. Southwest Kansas has been doing much better than the northwest on moisture, but it got 70 to 80 percent of it from a single storm. That kind of distribution creates more problems than it solves.”

Through early March, the western half of Kansas was getting 50 to 75 percent of typical precipitation for the year, she said. The east was running close to or above normal.

As part of that, western Kansas had gotten “dry” winter snows with a very low moisture content. In contrast, Manhattan, Kan., in February alone had received a record 18.8 inches of snow, and the fluffy stuff had above-average moisture.

Nonetheless, in early March the majority of the state still was registering on the official drought scale as abnormally dry, although a few parts were nearing normal. The northeast – especially the counties bordering Missouri and Nebraska – were showing moderate drought. The western third was in moderate to severe drought.

“The state’s surface water supplies didn’t improve much over winter. Now March rains are helping eastern Kansas stock ponds and stream flows, but leaving those in west still low. We haven’t recharged our subsoil moisture supplies, either,” Knapp said, “so our water tables remain down, making water much more expensive to pump.

“And, a dry April could undo any improvement we get from a wet March. Our situation simply is that precarious – no matter how much improvement we’ve seen. To recover, we need at or above normal moisture for a long time. We could be talking about years.” (See box.)

The climatologist added that, unfortunately, the slowest to recover will be the west. Areas which normally get lower rainfall take longer to recover from drought.

The Kansas Weather Data Library posts daily updates for the records and analyses it maintains on K-State Research and Extension’s Website at . The current postings include a county-by-county listing of Kansas’ two most recent 30-year moisture averages.

K-State Research and Extension is a short name for the Kansas State University Agricultural Experiment Station and Cooperative Extension Service, a program designed to generate and distribute useful knowledge for the well-being of Kansans. Supported by county, state, federal and private funds, the program has county Extension offices, experiment fields, area Extension offices and regional research centers statewide. Its headquarters is on the K-State campus, Manhattan.