Released: January 17, 2002
Kill Date: January 31, 2002

U.S. Winter Wheat Acres Smallest in 31 Years

MANHATTAN, Kan. – U.S. wheat growers responded to low prices, and in some cases, difficult planting conditions last fall by seeding the smallest amount of acreage to winter wheat since 1971.

The 41.03 million acres was down from 41.08 million acres last year, and 850,000 acres below the average of industry expectations, said Kansas State University agricultural economist Bill Tierney.

Wheat grain export commitments as of early January were 744 million bushels, and although that was nearly 30 million less than last year’s figure, it was close to the pace needed to meet government projections, he said.

"While it’s possible that some unexpected export business could develop, it’s not likely. Although the Southern Hemisphere’s wheat crop is 4 percent smaller than last year, record wheat exports of such non-traditional exporters as India, the former Soviet Union, and Pakistan, ensures that there will be strong competition for this year’s remaining world wheat import demand.

Despite the slide in total winter wheat acres, hard red winter [HRW] wheat acres were up slightly, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s most recent data. HRW acres rose 300,000 acres or 1 percent to 29.30 million acres.

Hard red winter wheat was the only class of wheat that showed an increase in acreage, Tierney said.

The number of acres planted to soft red winter wheat slipped 350,000 [4 percent] to 8.30 million acres, and white wheat acres fell 150,000 to 3.40 million.

"The decline in soft red winter wheat area probably had more to do with wet field conditions at planting time rather than with farmers intending to switch wheat acres to alternative crops," Tierney said. "Similarly, moisture or more precisely the lack of it, was the reason that white wheat acres [primarily in the Pacific Northwest] were down from last year.

"Unless the relative price of wheat – or wheat’s loan rate – changes dramatically relative to that of other crops, it seems likely that winter wheat acres have found an equilibrium. However, any future expansion of the CRP [Crop Reserve Program] could take a disproportionate amount of winter and spring wheat acres out of production," the economist said.

Despite the smaller acreage, 2002 winter wheat production could still outpace 2001 output if growing conditions are better.

Based on the assumption that 16 percent of winter wheat acres will not be harvested as grain, and an average yield of 45 bushels per acre, Tierney said the 2002 winter wheat production could total 1,555 million bushels, up 14 percent from last year’s crop of 1,361 million.

The decreased winter wheat acres could bode well for 2002 prices, the economist said, as could tightening world wheat stocks.

"There are several favorable factors which could boost wheat prices this year including decreased wheat seedings in the United States, a continuation of the drought in the central and southern Plains, and the potential for a reduction in world wheat stocks this year," Tierney said. "However, the hardy nature of the winter wheat crop and the prospect of adequate exportable wheat supplies next year, makes it likely that KCBT [Kansas City Board of Trade] July wheat futures will trade back down to or below $2.90 by harvest."

"Given the precarious balance between tight world stocks versus next year’s anticipated supplies of exportable wheat, it is recommended that producers strongly consider the use of options when pricing new crop wheat," he added.

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K-State Research and Extension is a short name for the Kansas State University Agricultural Experiment Station and Cooperative Extension Service, a program designed to generate and distribute useful knowledge for the well-being of Kansans. Supported by county, state, federal and private funds, the program has county Extension offices, experiment fields, area Extension offices and regional research centers statewide. Its headquarters is on the K-State campus, Manhattan.

Story by:
Mary Lou Peter, Communications Specialist
mlpeter@oznet.ksu.edu
K-State Research& Extension News