Released: February 01, 2002

January’s ’Crazy Weather’ May Continue Until Fall

MANHATTAN, Kan. – Crazy weather may extend into fall this year in the central High Plains, continuing January’s pattern of atypical and sometimes swiftly shifting weather conditions.

"Weather watchers can’t really tell farmers and gardeners what to expect in the coming growing season. The current outlook for ‘climatological’ conditions simply means central U.S. weather has nearly equal odds for being above or below normal through late 2002," said Mary Knapp, state climatologist for Kansas.

History suggests "climatological" often means that weather conditions tend to linger, warned Knapp, who maintains the official Weather Data Library at Kansas State University.

"I know that’s not what people want to hear," she said. "After all, last year we had areas that experienced deluge and areas with drought – the worst of both worlds. By January 2002, much of northern Kansas was back to near normal, but central areas were abnormally dry and a good deal of the south was in drought. We’d had a few remarkably dry snowfalls and repeated periods of near record-breaking warmth by the time the state ended the month in the grips of a major winter storm.

"Persisting conditions this year could mean almost anything."

Long-term forecasters had expected a climate-driving El Niño system to be building strength in the southeast Pacific Ocean by January.

"They’re still waiting. They’ve seen beginning signals, but now believe this El Niño will need another three to six months to fully develop. That could delay its influence on Kansas weather until early to late fall," Knapp said.

As a result, other "weather- making" climate factors will have a clear path. Warm, moist air masses could float in some relief. Or, as they did in January, "big, fast-moving, dry air masses could really wham the state -- taking temperatures down into the teens and single digits in a matter of hours,"she said.

This winter’s rapid freeze-thaw cycles have been hard on outdoor Kansas, despite the protection plants get from being in winter dormancy, Knapp added. In the current type of weather pattern, however, freezing weather sometimes has hit the state as late as April or May.

"Another big concern will be when and where the growing season’s moisture comes. With the right timing and distribution, even below-normal moisture can do a lot of good. If a three-month period’s average rainfall comes in a single storm, that isn’t much help for farm or garden," she said.

Last year’s weather in Kansas was largely the lingering effects of a La Niña weather pattern, which in Kansas usually means cool, dry conditions, Knapp said. If an El Niño emerges in late 2002, that should mean milder-than-normal temperatures. But the odds for more or less moisture could remain close to 50-50.

"So far, it appears that the best Kansas growers can do is keep a close eye on their local weather," she said. "And gardeners should probably be prepared to provide protection from unseasonably cold weather through spring and to provide any needed extra moisture from now through next winter."

The Kansas Weather Data Library provides daily statewide measures, useful historical averages and links to long-term weather forecasts on the K-State Research and Extension Website (http://www.oznet.ksu.edu/weather).

-30-

K-State Research and Extension is a short name for the Kansas State University Agricultural Experiment Station and Cooperative Extension Service, a program designed to generate and distribute useful knowledge for the well-being of Kansans. Supported by county, state, federal and private funds, the program has county Extension offices, experiment fields, area Extension offices and regional research centers statewide. Its headquarters is on the K-State campus, Manhattan.

Story by:
Kathleen Ward, Communications Specialist
kward@oznet.ksu.edu
K-State Research& Extension News