Released: January 29, 2002

Soybean Exports Set Record; Corn and Wheat Sales Lag

MANHATTAN, Kan. – Snappy U.S. soybean sales resulted in a record-large export commitment figure as of mid-January, but corn and wheat sales continued to lag.

U.S. soybean export commitments totaled 831 million bushels as of mid-January – well above last year’s figure of 723 million and a record since data collection began 25 years ago, according to Kansas State University economist Bill Tierney.

"The average for this date [Jan. 17] is 512 million bushels," said Tierney. "Despite this stellar performance, the USDA raised its projection for 2001/02 exports by a mere 10 million bushels to 1,010."

Tierney said the January commitments figure implied that 82 percent of projected annual exports had been booked – well ahead of the 67 percent typically booked by mid-January.

Among the active buyers was the European Union at 219 million bushels, up 17 million from its year-earlier commitments. Mexico committed to buy 91 million bushels, the same as last year, but last year’s figure was a record, Tierney said.

Sales to Japan, Korea and Taiwan were also higher than year-ago numbers, but commitments to China were down 25 million bushels.

Soyoil and soymeal exports have also been active.

The USDA raised its projection for 2001/02 soymeal exports to 7,900 thousand tons. That was 150,000 more than last month’s projection and 264,000 tons above 2000/01 exports, Tierney said.

"On average, 52 percent of total annual soymeal exports have been booked by this date [Jan. 17]," he said. "But this year’s commitments have accounted for about 58 percent of the USDA’s projection."

"Of particular significance is a large increase in commitments for Canada – up 92 percent from last year," Tierney said. "A poor Canadian soybean crop could push their annual soymeal imports to 1.2 million tons, making Canada the largest market for U.S. soymeal this year."

Soyoil exports for 2001/02 were pegged by the USDA at 2,500 million pounds.

"That’s unchanged from last month’s [USDA] projection, but 78 percent more than 2000/01 exports," Tierney said.

Wheat and corn sales, however, are not faring as well.

While wheat grain export commitments of 781 million bushels [as of Jan. 17] are on pace to meet the USDA’s latest projection for whole wheat grain of 960 million bushels, commitments are still the fourth lowest for that date on record, the economist said. Typical bookings as of mid-January are around 988 million bushels.

In the past few years Egypt has emerged as the United States’ biggest wheat buyer, but as of Jan. 17, export commitments to Egypt were 107 million bushels – 43 million less than last year and the smallest mid-January figure in five years, Tierney said.

"Using the average of U.S. market share over the last few years, K-State estimates that Egypt’s purchases this year will be 145 million bushels, about 28 million less than last year," he said.

Export commitments to perennial key buyers Brazil, China, the European Union, Japan, Mexico and Pakistan were larger than a year ago, and sales to Nigeria were a record-large 55 million bushels. "That’s 17 million more than last year," Tierney said. "However, commitments to Algeria, Korea, Morocco, the Philippines, Taiwan, Tunisia and the former Soviet Union were down from last year."

"The pace of corn export commitments [as of Jan. 17] was one of the slowest on record," Tierney added. While typically, 58 percent of corn exports are booked as of mid-January, this year’s figure of 925 million bushels implied that just 47 percent of the USDA’s projected 1,975 million bushels has been booked.

Corn sales to Japan tallied 287 million bushels, down 24 million from last year, and commitments to Korea, China and Egypt also dipped.

Sales to Mexico, an ever more important buyer of U.S. commodities, stood at 79 million bushels, down 14 million from a year earlier.

"However, that was the sixth largest figure for that date," Tierney said. "Based on the current pace of commitments, it’s possible that Mexico’s imports of U.S. corn this year could be 190 million bushels, down 33 million from last year’s record imports."

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K-State Research and Extension is a short name for the Kansas State University Agricultural Experiment Station and Cooperative Extension Service, a program designed to generate and distribute useful knowledge for the well-being of Kansans. Supported by county, state, federal and private funds, the program has county Extension offices, experiment fields, area Extension offices and regional research centers statewide. Its headquarters is on the K-State campus, Manhattan.

Story by:
Mary Lou Peter, Communications Specialist
mlpeter@oznet.ksu.edu
K-State Research& Extension News