MANHATTAN, Kan.– A crop condition index developed by Kansas State University agricultural economist Bill Tierney reinforces what plenty of wheat growers already suspected – the condition of this year’s U.S. winter wheat crop is below last year and also under the 15-year average.

While some winter wheat growers reported "business as usual" last fall, dry conditions in other key areas forced producers to delay planting until precipitation arrived. Others planted on time only to see their fields struggle to develop decent stands or not come up at all.

The result is a total U.S. wheat crop that rated 325 points on the index – down from 368 as of early April a year ago, and below the 15-year average of 357, said Tierney, who is the crops marketing specialist with K-State Research and Extension.

A score of 200 equals poor; 300, fair; 400, good; and 500, excellent.

"The index of hard red winter wheat crop conditions was 308 points. That’s below last year’s 351 and less than the average 355," the economist said.

At 370 points, however, the index for soft red winter wheat was above average, but less than last year’s 395. Similarly, the index for white wheat, predominately grown in the Pacific Northwest, was 383. That too was above average but also below last year’s 390.

"Although it is only the first week in April, we can estimate HRW and all winter wheat yield projections based on a simple model that correlates weekly crop conditions with yields," Tierney added. "Based on crop conditions as of the first week in April, 2001 winter wheat yields are projected to be 42.7 bushels [per acre], about 2 bushels less than last year and eight-tenths of a bushel below trend."

In estimating yields for the entire U.S. wheat crop (winter and spring varieties), Tierney uses the following assumptions: a yield projection of 42.7 bushels for winter wheat; slightly above "trend" yield projections for spring and durum wheat; and total wheat abandonment of 11percent.

"That results in 2001 all wheat production of 2.17 billion bushels, about 68 million less than last year," Tierney said. "The national average [all] wheat yield that corresponds to this projection is 40.7 bushels. That’s slightly larger than trend yield."

The U.S. Department of Agriculture, at its February Ag Outlook Conference, unveiled a 2001 all-wheat projection of 2.13 billion bushels and an all-wheat yield at 40.5 bushels per acre.

The USDA will release its first estimate based on actual field data of the winter wheat crop as well as the first "official" projections for 2001 U.S. and world wheat supply and demand on May 10.