"One of the big decisions wheat growers in western Kansas are facing this year is: Are their fields good enough to make it to harvest?" said Kansas State University agronomist Jim Shroyer.

Many farmers delayed wheat planting last fall because of a lack of moisture necessary for seed germination and early growth. Still others planted on time, but some of that wheat failed to come up, which resulted in thin stands. Other fields were planted on time, had fairly good moisture and developed good stands, although some of that wheat came up late.

"A lack of tillering last fall before the wheat went dormant is the biggest problem," said Shroyer, who is a crops production specialist with K-State Research and Extension.

On March 12, the Kansas Agricultural Statistics Service rated 31 percent of the state’s winter wheat good to excellent, 39 percent fair and 30 percent poor to very poor. Winterkill was estimated at 1 percent severe, 7 percent moderate, 21 percent light, and 71 percent no damage for winter wheat.

"What’s this crop going to yield? That’s the million dollar question," Shroyer said. "In the fall of 1999 in north central Kansas, we had a similar situation to what we have this year in western Kansas. We had considerable abandonment and gnashing of teeth then. We could be looking at the same situation this year.

"The bottom line is, the wheat has to make up [this spring] for a lack of growth and a lack of tillering. Because of the late emergence, I think we’re looking at a minimum of 20 percent yield loss. If it didn’t come up until spring, we’re probably looking at a 40 to 60 percent yield loss."

If the crop came up last fall and a grower has a 30 to 40 percent stand, "I’d say leave it," Shroyer said. "However, those thin stands are very vulnerable to wind erosion and weed problems.

"In western Kansas, for example, if you used 12-inch row spacing and 60 pounds of seed per acre, that would be approximately 19 to 20 seeds per foot of row. If you got 70 percent germination and emergence, 14 of those seeds would have become wheat plants. If you had 14 of them, you would have an okay stand. But what happens if you have below five, six or seven plants average through the field per foot of row? Then you have to seriously think about destroying it and switching to a row crop."

The agronomist added, "If you have six plants per foot of row in 12-inch row spacing, you have 260,000 plants per acre, which would be about 20 percent yield loss, based on seeding rate studies. In those studies, however, there was adequate tillering. So this puts us in uncharted territory."

As of mid-March, growers still have about 45 days to decide if they’re going to stay with their wheat crops or plant the fields to spring row crops instead, he said. If they decide to stay with the wheat, they should consider fertilizing as soon as possible.

"Unfortunately, many stands are not uniformly good or uniformly bad," he added. "In those situations, farmers will have to assess if a big enough percentage of the stand is good enough to make the field worth saving."

Growers who plan to destroy their wheat and switch to a row crop also need to consider whether the crop they’re replacing the wheat with will cover the variable costs of the wheat crop they destroy, in addition to the variable costs of the replacement crops they’re planting.

For growers who plan to save a field, fertilizer becomes the next decision.

While Shroyer said he does not advocate skimping on fertilizer for wheat, he cautioned growers to be realistic about yield goals for thin stands and to fertilize accordingly.

"We have confounding issues here – we’ve got thin stands and high fertilizer costs ," he said. "Also, if you fertilized and then decided to go with a spring row crop rather than harvesting the wheat, that fertilizer will still be there [for the row crop].

"I would be reluctant to combine a herbicide with the spring topdress of nitrogen because that locks you into staying with wheat and reduces farmers’ flexibility to go with another crop."

As the wheat "greens up" and farmers assess their fields, it’s also important to remember that winterkill can damage wheat as well as kill it, leaving it more susceptible to disease and pests than a healthy stand would be, the agronomist said.