Released: June 21, 2001

Economist Says It’s Too Early To Compare Soy Crop With ’93

MANHATTAN, Kan. – It’s in their nature. Farmers and economists alike love to compare years when it comes to crops and weather conditions. And this year’s cool, wet spring has sparked comparisons with1993, when flooding in the Midwest decimated crops in some areas, not to mention whole communities.

But it’s a little too soon to assess what effect this year’s soggy weather will have on the soybean crop, said Kansas State University agricultural economist Bill Tierney.

"The excessive moisture in the northwestern portions of the Corn Belt has some industry analysts concerned that this year’s crop could suffer from the same problems that afflicted the crop in 1993," said Tierney, who is the crops marketing specialist with K-State Research and Extension. "However, this year’s crop conditions are above those that prevailed at this time in 1993."

The U.S. Department of Agriculture will not release official crop production estimates for soybeans until August 10, but Tierney has developed a crop index using weekly government crop condition data. Using his index, he is able to estimate crop yields - updating the information weekly as the condition changes through the growing season.

Soybean conditions as of June 17 yielded a soybean condition index score of 355 on a scale of 100 to 500. (100 is poor and 500 is excellent).

"That (355) is 9 points less than the week before, 15 points less than last year and 5 points below average," the economist said.

"That puts this week’s [week of June 17] U.S. soybean yield projection at 38.2 bushels per acre," Tierney said.

Last year’s average soybean yield was 38.1 bushels per acre, while the average in 1993 was 32.6 bushels per acre.

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K-State Research and Extension is a short name for the Kansas State University Agricultural Experiment Station and Cooperative Extension Service, a program designed to generate and distribute useful knowledge for the well-being of Kansans. Supported by county, state, federal and private funds, the program has county Extension offices, experiment fields, area Extension offices and regional research centers statewide. Its headquarters is on the K-State campus, Manhattan.

Story by:
Mary Lou Peter, Communications Specialist
mlpeter@oznet.ksu.edu
K-State Research& Extension News