MANHATTAN, Kan. – USDA’s May crop report, released last week, indicated Kansas’ 2001 harvested winter wheat acreage may be the smallest in 44 years, according to Kansas State University economist Bill Tierney.

Mid-May field observations indicated a slight improvement in crop conditions. Even so, average yields and total acreage could make this year’s Kansas wheat harvest the smallest in more than 30 years, added Tierney, who is the grain marketing analyst for K-State Research and Extension.

"The May report pegged the state’s crop at 8.4 million acres. That’s not even close to what we saw in 1957, when Kansas farmers brought in just 5.27 million acres of wheat," he said. "But it’s 11 percent less than last year’s acreage. It also represents a 15.2 percent abandonment rate,"

"Abandonment" in Kansas often means the farmer is grazing out the crop, rather than harvesting it, Tierney said. Before USDA’s May report, K-State computer projections were putting that state rate at 13.1 percent.

By May 13, the state’s wheat crop progress and condition were combining to produce an index score of 275 (400 = excellent, 300 = fair and 200 = poor).

"That was four points higher than the previous week’s index," the economist said. "For the time of year, however, the state usually registers near 338 – although that score has ranged from 434 [in 1987] to 159 [in 1989]."

Last year’s mid-May wheat index in Kansas was 342.

"Unfortunately, with the near-record hot temperatures in recent days through parts of Kansas, upcoming index scores could easily lose ground," he warned.

Based on mid-May’s reading, however, Kansas’ average yield this year may be 34.8 bushels an acre, almost a bushel more than USDA projected May 7. Combined with an 8.4 million acre harvest, the crop total could be 292 million bushels – a 56 million bushel drop from last year’s production.