MANHATTAN, Kan. – Kansas’ weakening business sector and diminishing stream of sales tax revenue is a problem that has been developing for at least 21 years, said two Kansas State University researchers.

Members of the Kansas legislature learned last week that the state’s revenue shortfall will reach $185 million for fiscal year 2002, which begins July 1.

If the legislators were surprised by the projection, they shouldn’t have been, said K-State economists David Darling and Tom Garrett.

"Starting with their base year (fiscal year 1980), only a few Kansas counties have prospered while many have not," said Darling, an Extension specialist with K-State Research and Extension.

Darling annually compiles a measure known as the county trade pull factor, which tracks the relative strength of the retail business community. Economists can multiply the county’s pull factor by its population, to estimate the customer base.

Sales tax data to build the report is supplied by the Kansas Department of Revenue.

"Based on our analysis, the results support what many merchants and Kansans have observed," Darling said. "The results are bleak."

Eighty of the state’s 105 counties have lost relative strength based on a "significant" drop in their county pull factor. Also, 80 have lost some of their customer base.

One of the most dramatic examples is Barton County, an area that thrived in 1980 due to an oil and gas boom. Barton County’s pull factor in 1980 was 1.97, but has since fallen to 1.02, an estimated loss of 32,150 customers.

Describing the fall in retail sales, Darling said he wonders "who’s minding the store?"

"It seems as if the shop keepers are often out to lunch and the poor customers must go elsewhere to satisfy their retail service needs and wants," he said. "Once [customers] start that habit, it is a hard one to break."

According to the K-State study, ten Kansas counties continue doing well, based on their pull factor numbers. They include Johnson, Jackson, Pottawatomie, Crawford, Riley, Franklin, Douglas, Saline, Coffey and Shawnee counties.

Fifteen more have held fairly steady, or had losses that were insignificant. These are Atchison, Cloud, Dickinson, Ellis, Geary, Harvey, Hodgeman, Lyon, Marshall, McPherson, Morris, Reno and Thomas counties.

Hamilton and Norton counties lost some retail strength since 1980, but fared better than the other 78 counties that have experienced a loss of relative strength.

"Community-elected, appointed, and volunteer leaders can find ways to energize retail activity in their communities," Darling said, adding that K-State Research and Extension provides services that can help them, including:

* On-site workshops that focus on building a healthy retail community;

* A compact disc for those new in community and economic development which includes information on understanding the community’s economy; applying economic concepts; choosing community goals; and the benefits of economic progress to the community.

* Extension bulletins and statistical reports.

* The Website, http://www.agecon.ksu.edu/ddarling/ , which provides new information and data to help community planning;

Interested persons may get more information on these programs by calling Darling at 785-532-1512.