MANHATTAN, Kan. – The hog sector has been adding up surprises.

If it continues, the most recent surprise – a 4 percent year-to-year increase in April slaughter – could cast doubt on USDA’s March estimate of the September-November 2000 pig crop, said Kansas State University economist James Mintert.

First-quarter slaughter for 2001 was 1.8 percent below last year’s. But, analyses of USDA’s March data had indicated a 1.5 to 2 percent increase was likely in April-June.

Some of last month’s unexpectedly large slaughter may have been the result of marketings that winter weather delayed until early spring, Mintert said. If not, however, the price outlook could change.

Recently reported pork import-export sales for early 2001 also were "somewhat of a surprise," the economist said. They represented "dramatic improvement in pork trade flows."

Pork imports – principally from Canada and Denmark – fell almost 5 percent under year-earlier levels during January-February. February’s purchases alone posted a 9 percent year-to-year drop.

In contrast, the two-month period’s pork exports rose more than 18 percent, compared to 2000 levels. At 14 percent, February’s increase represented a 38 percent jump in that month’s sales to Mexico, a 29 percent rise in pork going to Japan and an 8 percent increase in exports to Canada.

"Given that beef exports were down at the same time pork exports were increasing, it looks as if importing customers shied away from relatively high-priced beef (which posted record-high boxed beef cutout values during January) in favor of lower-priced pork," said Mintert, the livestock marketing analyst for K-State Research and Extension.