Released: November 05, 2001

Soybean Exports Exceed Last Year’s, But Corn Sales Lagging

MANHATTAN, Kan. – U.S. soybean exports have been brisk – to the tune of 412 million bushels as of mid-October – but corn sales have lagged and may not meet the government’s annual projections, said Kansas State University agricultural economist Bill Tierney.

The soybean crop’s 412-million-bushel tally outpaced last year’s figure of 361 million, and was well above the 25-year mid-October average of 288 million bushels.

"The USDA [in October] lowered its projection for 2001-02 exports to 980 million bushels. That’s down 10 million from their September projection and 20 million bushels less than 2000-01 exports," said Tierney, who is a crops marketing specialist with K-State Research and Extension. "Using the figure for mid-October commitments implies that 42 percent of projected annual exports have been booked. That’s above the [mid-October] average of 38 percent."

Soybean commitments to the European Union tallied 97 million bushels – up 17 million from mid-October last year – and commitments to Japan and China were also up from a year ago. Exports to Korea, however, slipped to 12 million bushels, 3 million less than last year.

Soybean export commitments to Mexico totaled 45 million bushels, down 8 million from year-earlier levels, but still the second largest figure on record for that date, Tierney said.

The active soybean sales, however, have not translated to lofty prices, because of this year’s record-large U.S. production and possible record-large South American output.

"November soybean futures fell 60 cents [per bushel] from early September to late October, and have come within a nickel of testing the life-of-contract lows that were set in late April," Tierney said. "This year the market must contend with a record U.S. soybean crop as well as an expected record-large South American crop."

The U.S. Department of Agriculture recently lowered its projection for the national average soybean price by 60 cents.

"That’s the largest price reduction the USDA has ever made in their October forecast," Tierney noted, adding that the revision raised some eyebrows among market analysts and cast some doubt on government supply and demand figures. "At $4.30, however, the midpoint of the USDA’s current price projection is only 17 cents below the price predicted by the recent futures market. So the USDA’s price forecast should not be rejected out of hand."

On Nov. 2, November soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade traded at $4.33 per bushel, and March beans traded at $4.44. The May contract traded at $4.48 a bushel.

Unlike soybean exports, corn exports as of mid-October lagged year-earlier and average sales, Tierney said.

At 517 million bushels, corn export commitments were 48 million less than last year’s figure and below the 25-year mid-October average of 609 million bushels.

"This year’s figure implies that 25 percent of the USDA’s projected 2,050 million bushels have been booked," Tierney said. "In [its] October Supply/Demand Report, the USDA raised corn exports from the previous month’s projection by 75 million bushels. Based on a seasonal average of export commitments-to-total-annual-exports, corn export commitments should be about 787 million bushels as of this date [mid-October]."

By mid-October, corn sales to Japan totaled 161 million bushels, 29 million less than a year earlier. Commitments to Taiwan came in at 51 million bushels – about the same as last year. However, export commitments to South Korea were down 16 million bushels, half of what they were a year earlier, due to larger Korean purchases from China, the economist said.

Corn sales to Mexico climbed 4 million bushels to 61 million by mid-October – the second largest figure for that date.

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K-State Research and Extension is a short name for the Kansas State University Agricultural Experiment Station and Cooperative Extension Service, a program designed to generate and distribute useful knowledge for the well-being of Kansans. Supported by county, state, federal and private funds, the program has county Extension offices, experiment fields, area Extension offices and regional research centers statewide. Its headquarters is on the K-State campus, Manhattan.

Story by:
Mary Lou Peter, Communications Specialist
mlpeter@oznet.ksu.edu
K-State Research& Extension News