Released: June 05, 2001

Kansas Corn Crop Could Be Record Large

MANHATTAN, Kan. – Ample spring rains and an unusually large number of failed wheat acres may have paved the way for a record large corn crop – 498 million bushels – in Kansas this year, a Kansas State University agricultural economist said.

Based on the latest government data, Bill Tierney, crop marketing specialist with K-State Research and Extension, estimated that Kansas farmers will plant a record 3.54 million acres to corn this year. That’s 4 percent – or 140,000 acres – more than the latest government projection. The figure is also up from 3 million planted acres in 1998 and 2.150 million in 1995 – reflecting a several-year trend toward increased corn acres through the state.

Another model projected that 3.36 million acres of corn, or 95 percent of the planted area, will be harvested as grain.

"Because of the availability of soil moisture, a high percent of the state’s 1 million acres of abandoned winter wheat are expected to be re-seeded to other crops," he said, noting that grain sorghum will be planted on much of that land.

Tierney uses weekly U.S. Department of Agriculture data to rate the crop in an index. As of June 3, the crop condition index for Kansas corn was 391 [300 = fair and 400 = good]. The 391 index is near the 15-year average of 392 and above 361 a year earlier.

Using USDA crop condition and progress data in a model, the economist also projected the August corn yield estimate at 148.4 bushels per acre – up from 130 bushels per acre last year and the "trend" yield for Kansas this year of 148 bushels.

"Trend" yields are the expected yields for a given year based on "time" yield models. On average, he explained, crop yields increase each year due to improvements in varieties, cultivation practices, and better inputs, such as herbicides, pesticides, and fertilizer.

The effect of these "yield enhancing" technological changes tends to be steady and incremental in nature. Consequently, most analysts estimate the expected yield for this year based on models which try to measure the increase in yields over time.

"Based on the projections of 3.36 million acres harvested and a yield of 148.4 bushels an acre, the 2001 Kansas corn crop is projected to be a record 498 million bushels," he said.

Sorghum acreage is also likely to increase statewide due in part to the rainfall and failed wheat acres.

"In fact, milo could account for most of the re-seeded [wheat] acres," Tierney said.

He expects Kansas farmers to plant 4.01 million acres to grain sorghum – up 410,000 acres or 11 percent from the USDA’s "Prospective Plantings" figure of 3.6 million released on March 30.

Kansas is the No. 1 grain sorghum-producing state.

Soybean production too, is likely to expand throughout the state. An economic model using crop condition and progress data produced a crop condition index for Kansas soybeans of 376, Tierney said. The index was below the 15-year average of 390 but above last year’s index of 365.

"Based on the crop condition index of 376 for Kansas soybeans, the August soybean yield estimate is projected to be 31.9 bushels [per acre]," he said.

That’s unchanged from last week’s projection, but well above last year’s yield of 20 bushels per acre. The "trend" yield for Kansas this year is 31.8 bushels per acre.

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K-State Research and Extension is a short name for the Kansas State University Agricultural Experiment Station and Cooperative Extension Service, a program designed to generate and distribute useful knowledge for the well-being of Kansans. Supported by county, state, federal and private funds, the program has county Extension offices, experiment fields, area Extension offices and regional research centers statewide. Its headquarters is on the K-State campus, Manhattan.

Story by:
Mary Lou Peter, Communications Specialist
mlpeter@oznet.ksu.edu
K-State Research& Extension News