MANHATTAN, Kan. – Sluggish cattle sales earlier this year have created a backlog at the nation’s feedlots and helped lead to lower mid-April beef and fed cattle prices, but values could start to rebound by mid- to late summer, a Kansas State University agricultural economist said.

"Cash prices for slaughter cattle tumbled this week [April 16-20] to about $77 per hundredweight [cwt] after trading near $80 the two prior weeks," said K-State Research and Extension livestock marketing specialist James Mintert. "Boxed beef prices also declined sharply, falling below $125 [per cwt] after trading above $130 just a week ago."

Mintert said the weakness in cash prices was "disconcerting" because supplies have not yet increased appreciably – activity that is expected as cattle feeders sell cattle whose gains were slowed over the winter by harsh weather.

The slow cattle sales were borne out by government data.

Fed cattle sales at U.S. feedlots fell 1.93 million head or 6.3 percent in March from year-earlier levels, the U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed on April 20. The decline followed a 14-percent drop in marketings during February.

"The sharp reduction in marketings meant the on-feed inventory was still 3 percent larger than on April 1 last year," Mintert said. "Moreover, the April inventory was also 10.9 percent larger than the five-year average for April."

The USDA also reported the total number of U.S. cattle on feed as of April 1 at 11.52 million head, up 3 percent from April 1, 2000.

But even as the cattle were slow to move out of feedlots last winter, so too were cattle feeders reluctant to place cattle on feed in what were then cold, wet and sometimes muddy conditions.

Net placements (USDA’s gross placements minus other disappearance) of cattle on feed in March fell 8.1 percent below a year earlier, the USDA reported.

Mintert expects further cash price weakness through late June as cattle feeders sell off cattle placed last winter.

"Cash prices for western Kansas slaughter cattle are likely to dip into the low $70s between now and late June, and there is a chance they could dip below $70 if beef demand falters," he said.

"However, recent sharp declines in placements of cattle on feed mean that slaughter rates will start to decline, and cash prices will start to strengthen by mid- to late summer," he added.