MANHATTAN, Kan. – Harsh winter weather took a toll on cattle in the nation’s feedlots – and boosted beef and cattle prices – but the picture will change by this summer, a Kansas State University agricultural economist said.

Fed cattle prices have seesawed in recent weeks, but still managed to post the highest average first-quarter price in eight years at $79.13 per hundredweight [cwt], said James Mintert, livestock marketing specialist with K-State Research and Extension.

"Cattle slaughter in early April was still running well below a year ago," Mintert said. "And fed cattle marketings could remain tight for a few more weeks before the delay in this winter’s fed cattle marketings starts to be felt in the form of rising steer and heifer slaughter. As a result, western Kansas slaughter cattle prices are expected to remain in the upper $70s through late April."

By early May, however, Mintert expects cattle marketings to start increasing, which will lead to weaker cash prices. He expects slaughter cattle values to dip to the mid-$70s by mid-May and to the low $70s by mid-June.

"Placements of cattle on feed fell dramatically in February and are likely to decline again in March and April. Smaller placements in late winter and early spring mean that the seasonal peak in slaughter cattle supplies could occur earlier than normal this year," he said. "In turn, the seasonal bottom in slaughter cattle prices this year could occur in early summer instead of mid-summer, as it often does. Tight feeder cattle supplies this spring and summer should set the stage for a slaughter cattle price recovery this fall, with prices in the mid-$70s likely."

Cattle values could rise into the upper $70s if the weakening U.S. economy does not turn into a major drag on beef demand, he added.

The strong first-quarter cash cattle prices proved a boost for cattle feeders’ balance sheets, said Extension livestock marketing specialist Rodney Jones.

Strong profits on fed cattle were posted in February and March – likely averaging in the $60 to $70 per head range, Jones said, adding that break-even values on current closeouts were likely in the $73.50 to $75 area.

"Profits are expected to decline by summer, as futures-based price forecasts suggest significant declines in fed cattle prices," he added.

Indeed, cattle futures indicate a precipitous slide may be near.

June live cattle futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange settled near 72 cents a pound on April 11, well below April futures which closed near 78 cents. August futures also settled at about 72 cents a pound, while October ended up near 73.5 cents.

Jones estimates that cattle leaving feedlots in August will break even in the $73- to $73.75-per-cwt area – somewhat above expected sale prices.