Released: July 30, 2001

Myth or Fact? Kansas Weather Now More Dangerous

MANHATTAN, Kan. – No one in the state was surprised when the National Weather Service revised its first long-term forecast, calling for an unusually mild, wet summer this year in Kansas.

"I am still getting flood-related phone calls. They’ve been coming in since early spring, when people started worrying about this year’s growing season temperatures, too," said state climatologist Mary Knapp. "But I’ve also been receiving phone calls about the records for tornadoes, drought and heat. Some people just can’t believe it when I tell them all the variations we’ve been having aren’t that extreme."

Their attitude is understandable, she said. It’s based on experience. The state recently ended a long period of oddly "nice" weather.

But another factor also is making Kansas seem like a more dangerous place to live.

"Simply put, our population keeps growing and our culture keeps changing," Knapp explained.

For example, urban expansion is taking residential building into zones known to flood – although the devastating floods so far have been up to 100 years apart. Because housing is spreading in all directions, that’s increasing the odds a tornado will hit a populated area. And, Kansans are renting more apartments, buying more mobile homes and building more slab homes – all too often without making sure storm protection is nearby.

"I suspect we also have more drivers who don’t really know or perhaps remember how to negotiate safely in heavy rain and fog, much less over ice and snow," Knapp said. "We’ve been getting an increasing number of new residents from less extreme weather-prone locations. Plus, it’s been awhile since we’ve had truly severe winter weather.

"This situation is particularly hazardous with higher speed limits, because you have less time to react. And a crash at 70 mph does a lot more damage that one at 50 mph."

Fortunately, despite these changes, modern weather information and warning systems have greatly reduced the risk of many kinds of weather-related fatalities.

Myths Can Be Hazardous

But, people’s myths and misconceptions haven’t kept pace.

"Perhaps some of us aren’t listening to weather safety information, as well as forecasts," she said.

For example, an idea believed nationwide is that tornadoes are Kansans’ biggest weather threat.

"We are No. 1 in the nation for having the most F5 tornadoes – the worst kind, with winds in excess of 120 mph," said Knapp, who maintains the official Weather Data Library at Kansas State University. "But Kansas isn’t in the running for having the most tornadoes. That’s nearly always Florida.

"In fact, we’re more likely to have damage from straight winds, as Russell did this year with gusts in excess of 100 mph. Floods tend to cause our biggest dollar amounts of damage. Flooding and lightning vie for producing the greatest number of weather-related fatalities."

Kansans’ actions suggest that many of them believe bad weather must be in sight to be dangerous, she said. But "if you can hear thunder, that means the storm and its lightning are close enough to harm you. So you’d better not be the tallest thing in the area."

One fact-based piece of folklore is that arm hair often rises, just before a close lightning strike.

"Hair rises because the atmosphere is collecting a charge. So if you’re outdoors and that happens, you should immediately crouch and grab your knees, making yourself shorter, but leaving the soles of your feet as the only thing that’s grounded," she said.

Despite the state’s almost mythical link to tornadoes, another widely held misconception sees Kansas as always on the edge of drought – as one explorer described it, "The Great American Desert."

The state almost was a desert in the 1930s, when Kansas set its records for heat and drought.

"Since then, however, we’ve had flooding somewhere almost every year. We’ve had droughts that were punctuated by flooding and vice versa," Knapp said. "Drought is much more likely to happen in the east than in the west. But this year, for example, while most of northern Kansas was drying out this spring, the south was having repeated storms. Later, when soil across most of the state was beginning to crack, the northeastern tier of counties was having brief, but fierce floods.

"K-State Research and Extension’s diagnostic labs have been getting all kinds of samples from across Kansas. Many of this year’s insect samples have been spider mites, which are associated with hot, dry weather. But many of the plant disease samples have had root rot, which develops in excess moisture."

Even so, Kansans always seem surprised by excess melting snow or rains – as many Kansas Citians were this spring. Homes not fitted or fixed for handling the moisture soon had problems.

"This year was the 50th anniversary of what many Kansans believe is the state’s worst all-time flood. Perhaps news coverage of that reinforced the need for being prepared," she said. "What no one seems to recognize, however, is that although the 1951 flood was bad, floods in 1800s were worse. Our rains and snow melts can be as extreme as our droughts."

Kansas a Proving/Training Ground

Knapp said Kansas itself has proven some older weather myths are untrue:

• Really bad weather won’t hit where two rivers join. Wrong ... in Manhattan, Kan., at least.
  
• Indian burial grounds provide protection. Wrong ...for Topeka’s all-time worst tornado.
  
• The southwest corner of the house is safest in a tornado. Wrong ... as research following the state’s multiple 1966 tornadoes proved conclusively.

Right now, the state is underscoring a truism: "It’s not the heat so much as it’s the humidity!"

Yet, mistaken ideas sometimes seem to develop as fast as they die. One newer "myth," for example, has to do with highway overpasses – which scares Knapp:

"We’ve all seen videotape taken by people sheltering there. But they were just lucky – as a recent fatality made clear. Overpasses can serve as a channel for water during flooding. They’re not strong enough for earthquakes. They tend to collect ice and snow drifts. They can attract lightning. And their supports put you above ground level during a tornado, when your best hope is to be in a low place, below the debris path."

That entire collection of natural disasters is part of the state’s history, she said. Before anyone now living in Kansas was born, the state was part of the biggest (area) U.S. earthquake ever recorded. An earthquake fault now runs through one of the earthen dams built after 1951’s flood.

"Kansas is a great place to learn about nature," Knapp said. "But my hope is more Kansans will take the time to make sure they’re up-to-date on what’s safe and what’s not, to develop emergency plans, and then use them. Nature’s strength deserves that respect. What we don’t know is the major factor that can make the state’s weather more dangerous than it used to be – for people, at least, if not property."

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Box:

Few activities are important enough to risk being struck by lightning, says Mary Knapp, Kansas’ state climatologist.

People are taking that chance if they continue playing golf, jogging, horseback riding or boating after they can hear thunder. In fact, they should seek shelter if they just see a storm is developing.

Last year while playing under clear blue skies, a Kansas girl was killed by lightning and her playmate was injured. No other lightning or thunder was ever reported, but Knapp says a bolt with temperatures hotter than the surface of the sun can hit 10 miles away from its storm.

The state’s other recent victims include a man standing on a boat ramp, two teenagers at a park in Wichita, and a photographer who stepped out of her car to take a photo of an impressive lightning display.

"We’ve had indoor victims, as well," she warns. "During a thunderstorm you must never use anything connected to wires or pipes that could transfer a strike your way – including line-based phones."

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K-State Research and Extension is a short name for the Kansas State University Agricultural Experiment Station and Cooperative Extension Service, a program designed to generate and distribute useful knowledge for the well-being of Kansans. Supported by county, state, federal and private funds, the program has county Extension offices, experiment fields, area Extension offices and regional research centers statewide. Its headquarters is on the K-State campus, Manhattan.

Story by:
Kathleen Ward, Communications Specialist
kward@oznet.ksu.edu 

K-State Research& Extension News