To date, FMD has been found at 231 separate sites in England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, and now has also been discovered in France.

The French case prompted the U.S. Department of Agriculture on March 13 to impose a temporary ban on hog and ruminant imports from the European Union, as well as pork and ruminant meat and other products. The ban does not include cooked pork products.

The United States imports the equivalent of about 1 percent of its domestic production from the European Union.

"With pork imports from the EU temporarily halted, the import reduction will, effectively, reduce U.S. pork supplies," Mintert said.

"Moreover, the EU is a large pork exporter to other countries. If major importers choose to follow the lead of the U.S. and Canada and halt pork imports from the EU it may stimulate demand for U.S. pork exports to replace lost pork exports from the EU."

The ban has come at a time when U.S. hog prices often rise seasonally, Mintert noted.

The outbreak – just three weeks old as of mid-March – has already resulted in tens of thousands of animals being slaughtered in the UK in efforts to bring the disease under control.

Foot-and-mouth disease causes severe weight loss and sometimes death in cloven-hoofed animals, such as cattle, sheep and hogs, but does not affect humans. It can, however, be spread on people’s clothing and vehicle tires, as well as in other ways.

The United States has been free of FMD since 1929.

"Unfortunately, it’s virtually impossible to quantify the impact of FMD on U.S. pork trade until more is known about the severity of the outbreak and how long it might take to bring it under control," Mintert said.

"It should be noted, however, that the most recent experience with an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease on U.S. pork exports was disappointing," the economist said.

In March 1997, foot-and-mouth disease in Taiwan led to suspension of pork exports from Taiwan to Japan. Because Taiwan provides about 45 percent of Japan’s total pork imports, that looked like an excellent opportunity for the United States to step in and help fill the void.

"Subsequently, however, it became apparent that the big increase in U.S. pork exports was not going to materialize," Mintert said. "In fact, U.S. pork exports to Japan from April through December, 1997, were actually 2 percent smaller than during April through December of 1996, in part because Japanese consumers opted to reduce their pork consumption."

"If FMD does provide a boost to U.S. pork exports, it will be welcome," Mintert said.

He noted that total U.S. pork exports in 2000 were up 2 percent from the previous year, but that all of the increase occurred in the first three quarters of the year. Pork exports fell off in the fall – particularly to Russia.

Pork sales to Russia plummeted by 85 percent last fall from year-earlier levels, primarily because of the absence of a food assistance package in 2001 that had been present in 2000. However, pork exports to other major U.S. customers – Japan, Canada and Mexico – all increased. In fact, if Russia had been excluded from both 2000 and 2001 export totals, fall 2000 pork exports would have been 14 percent larger than in 1999, Mintert noted.