"As of February 15, wheat grain export commitments totaled 905 million bushels, 21 million more than last year but below the 26-year average of 1,085 million bushels," said Kansas State University agricultural economist Bill Tierney.

Commitments to Algeria, the European Union, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Pakistan, the Philippines, Taiwan and the former Soviet Union were all down from last year, said Tierney, who is the crops marketing specialist with K-State Research and Extension.

Mexico – considered a major growth market in recent years – had committed to buy 57 million bushels as of mid-February. That’s down almost 10 million from last year’s record commitments of 66 million bushels.

Export commitments to other major customers, however, such as Egypt, Morocco, Nigeria and Tunisia were above year-ago levels.

Even with the slower-than-usual pace of wheat buying by some U.S. customers, Tierney said he was "somewhat surprised" that the U.S. Department of Agriculture had cut its latest projection for next year’s wheat exports to 1,100 million bushels – down 75 million from the year-ago figure.

The USDA cited improved production prospects in Iran and North Africa as two factors that should reduce exports to those regions.

"Smaller soft wheat plantings in the EU, however, are expected to reduce that region’s supplies. Lower production in India and Pakistan may end India’s small export program and increase Pakistan’s imports," Tierney said. "Also, China’s wheat stocks are projected to fall to their lowest level [when measured as a percent of use] in over 40 years. In order to prevent stocks from falling lower, it appears that China’s wheat imports may have to increase by 3 to 6 million metric tons [110 to 220 million bushels]."

On average, 90 percent of total annual wheat grain exports are contracted by February 15. Using the USDA’s 1,100-million-bushel total wheat export projection, Tierney estimates that wheat grain exports would total 1,055 billion bushels. Therefore, the ratio of 2000/2001 export grain commitments, plus food aid shipments to date, to total annual grain exports is 86 percent.

"Assuming that the USDA has correctly estimated how much of this year’s Food Aid Initiative [FAI] donations will actually be shipped this marketing year, it now appears likely that total wheat exports will achieve the USDA’s February projection," he said.

But that brings up another question, the economist said.

"One possibility not mentioned by the USDA, is that the new Bush administration may choose not to continue the Food Aid Donations. Over the last two years, food aid shipments of wheat have averaged 130 million bushels. Shipments this year have already exceeded 80 million bushels."

For further information, interested persons can visit http://www.agecon.ksu.edu/risk.

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Sidebar:

MANHATTAN, Kan. – The USDA has estimated 2001 total U.S. wheat production at 2.125 billion bushels, down 4 percent from 2000 production, but spring wheat plantings and spring weather hold the key to final production figures, said Bill Tierney, agricultural economist with K-State Research and Extension.

There is likely to be a slightly larger-than-average abandonment of wheat acreage, given the fact some hard red winter wheat in key growing areas was planted late and is suffering as a result.

"At present, HRW crop conditions appear to be well below average," Tierney said. "There is considerable concern about poor germination and limited tillering last fall. In addition, the regime of warm, then cold, temperatures may have contributed to increased winter kill."

On March 5, the Kansas Agricultural Statistics Service rated winter wheat as 3 percent excellent,

27 percent good, 39 percent fair, 19 percent poor, and 12 percent very poor. Winter kill was estimated to be 3 percent severe, 8 percent moderate, 21 percent light, and 68 percent no damage for winter wheat.

"Of course, if temperatures turn mild, the crop’s development should advance, given the abundant soil moisture," Tierney said. "But that could also make the crop more susceptible to freeze damage."

Other factors cited by the economist as possibly trimming wheat output this year included increased graze-out of some wheat acres in Texas and Oklahoma and a possible one- to two-bushel-per-acre decline in winter wheat yields because of the late planting and adverse fall and winter weather.

Despite projections for less wheat production overall, the spring and durum wheat acreage may rise 2 to 3 percent and abandonment and trend yields for other spring and durum wheat classes are expected to be average, he said.