MANHATTAN, Kan. -- Savvy feedgrain growers will be watching the weather this summer – not only for its effect on production but also for its potential to bring the 2000-01 marketing year's top price.

"If this summer brings a true 'short crop' year, some growers may even consider forward pricing part of the crop they'll plant in 2001," said Kansas State University economist Bill Tierney.

Given current market fundamentals and long-term weather forecasts, feedgrain supplies are likely to be large next fall, he said. At harvest time, December corn futures could fall below $1.90 a bushel.

"Compared to expected usage, however, feedgrain stocks are at relatively low levels. So, any real or imagined threat to the crop while it's still developing could move prices higher," said Tierney, who is the grain marketing analyst for K-State Research and Extension.

USDA surprised the industry in June, estimating the remaining1999-2000 corn stocks at 3.6 billion bushels.

Beyond that, U.S. corn yields this year could average between 130 and 140 bushels an acre, Tierney said. Sorghum yields also could exceed "trend" and average near 72.5 bushels an acre.

"Drought conditions are prevailing across the South and parts of the western Corn Belt may already have cut into yield prospects. For most of the major corn-producing regions, however, a significant drought threat doesn't seem likely," the analyst said.

Both corn's and sorghum's planting progress has been well ahead of average this year.

And, early planting can have a favorable effect on yields, Tierney said. For corn, it also may help explain why U.S. farmers seeded well over a million more acres than the planting intentions they reported back in March.

"That’s only happened twice in the last 50 years," he said. "Usually corn producers plant less than they plan because they're delayed by wet fields or other problems. If they're delayed until early June, they usually switch the acreage to soybeans – which is why actual soybean plantings often exceed farmers' March intentions."

Old-crop feedgrain sales to-date don't suggest exports will bring any unusual price support for the new crop, Tierney said. Thus, the best odds for higher prices remains the weather.

"Last year, it got hot and dry after the July 4 holiday, and adversely affected both the corn and soybean crops," he pointed out.

* Producers could pre-price part of their anticipated 2001-02 crop by (1) "selling" a December 2001 corn futures contract or by (2) "selling" the July 2002 contract, "rolling out" of that hedge in early July 2002, and replacing it by "selling" the December 2002 contract.

"In the short-crop years since 1975, the rollover hedge strategy has earned an average $1.04 per bushel – about 93 percent – more than the straight hedge," Tierney said, "but only for those who could 'pick the high' and trade at exactly the right time."

-30-