MANHATTAN, Kan. – Cattle feeders may have to bite the bullet to stop late April’s price slide by midsummer.

The U.S. cattle-on-feed count remains above year-ago levels. So, timely marketings could push western Kansas May-June fed cattle prices into the low $70s per hundredweight (cwt.) – down from an early April average near $80. In fact, prices are likely to bottom out below the amount most producers need to break even, said Kansas State University economist James Mintert.

But if producers respond to the price decline by holding cattle back, that probably will just delay the recovery until fall.

"If cattle feeders further delay marketings in response to declining prices, it will push weights up faster than otherwise would be the case," said Mintert, who is K-State Research and Extension’s livestock marketing specialist.

So far, the economist is seeing no real backlog of market-ready cattle.

April’s on-feed inventory was 11 percent above the current five-year average and 3 percent over last year’s. Also, the month’s slaughter fell short of the previous April’s by about 7 percent overall and 10 to 11 percent for fed cattle.

Yet, USDA-reported slaughter weights continued below 2000’s averages. Commercial beef production for the month was down 8 percent, taking the January-April total 6 percent below last year’s.

Still, "the year-to-year reduction in steer and heifer slaughter during April means some fed cattle originally scheduled for slaughter in early spring have not come to market yet," the economist added. "As a result, fed cattle marketings are expected to rise more than seasonally over the next two months. Average daily cattle slaughter could equal the previous year’s by June.

"At the same time, year-to-year reductions in averaged dressed weights will start to moderate, as feeding performance starts to improve. [That] means late spring beef production will be near a year ago."

If producers keep marketings current, however, supplies could start to tighten by mid-summer – which is earlier than the seasonal norm, Mintert said. Then winter’s slowdown in feedlot placements could fuel a price recovery that drives fall’s prices into the mid- to upper-$70s.

All the facts aren’t in yet on the effects that 2001’s first-quarter changes have had on consumer and export demand. The economist said that so far, the data suggest:

* Despite the U.S. economy’s slowdown, preliminary figures indicate retail demand for choice beef increased about 3 percent during this year’s first quarter, compared to last year’s. But if the economy continues to slow down, growth in beef demand also could slow down later this year.

* January-February exports were down 10.2 percent from 2000 levels, at least in part due to record-high U.S. wholesale beef prices. Russia posted the sharpest drop in purchases, followed by South Korea (down 33 percent in February), Canada (-33 percent) and Japan (-16 percent).

"[Early] trade data still do not reveal what spillover impact, if any, the hoof-and-mouth disease outbreak in the European Union is having on U.S. beef trade, since the outbreak occurred too late in the month to have any impact on February’s exports," Mintert said.

But the trade data did suggest some buyers had switched to cheaper pork, because pork exports rose at the same time that beef exports fell.

Prices for 700- to 800-pound feeder steers held firm in the upper $80s and low $90s through April’s fed cattle price drop. Lightweight steers and heifers ended the month at the year’s highest prices, averaging $108 as seasonal demand for grazing cattle peaked.

Lightweight feeder trade should now weaken as grass cattle demand wanes, Mintert said. Feeder prices may be vulnerable, too, if fed cattle prices fall into the low $70s.

"But feeder price weakness will be limited by expectations for a recovery in slaughter cattle prices this fall, which means [heavyweight] feeder steer prices are not likely to drop below the mid-$80s lows established in midwinter," he said.